Monday, November 15, 2010

2011 Projections Courtesy of Bill James

Note: There were no projections for any other JMLs, former or current.

Ryan Braun
: .310/.372/.551 for an OPS of .923, 33 HRs, 46 doubles, 4 triples, 114 RBIs, 108 runs scored, 196 hits, 349 total bases, 83 extra base hits, 15 SBs, 5 CS, 159 games, 689 PAs

My Thoughts: Exactly the type of numbers you would expect from Braun in a season where he'll be entering his prime at 27. He would set or tie career-bests in games played, doubles, extra base hits, and RBIs. Additionally, his ISO (extra base hits per AB) would rebound from the decline of the last 2 seasons. He would almost certainly get another Silver Slugger Award and might even be in the MVP discussion, depending on where the Brew Crew finishes in the standings.

Craig Breslow: 5-4, 2 saves, 72 appearances, 77 innings, 3.04 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 70 Ks, 7.2 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 2.26 K/BB, .222 BAA

My Thoughts: Another great season for Breslow. Once again, he'd be making a lot of appearances out of the bullpen. That's to be expected. Very similar numbers to 2010, except he'd get hit a little harder, causing his WHIP to go up some. Still missing a lot of bats, though, which would be nice to see. If I were the A's, I would take this season from Breslow.

Ike Davis: .283/.374/.488 for an OPS of .862, 23 HRs, 36 doubles, 1 triple, 80 RBIs, 78 runs scored, 148 hits, 255 total bases, 60 extra base hits, 75 BBs, 147 games, 598 PAs

My Thoughts: Very nice line for the 24-year old sophomore slugger. Ike's BA and OBP would increase about 20 points each, and his SLG would increase nearly 50 points. Talk about making strides! His walk rate would go up a little, and his strikeouts would go down a little. I think he could wind up playing 150+ games and producing more runs than James projects here, even in that bad Mets lineup. Can't really complain about this projection. I don't know if he'll do it next season, but I believe Ike is capable of hitting 25+ HRs.

Scott Feldman: 5-7, 27 games, 14 GS, 105 innings, 4.46 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 1.03 HR/9, 3.26 BB/9, 5.06 K/9, 1.55 K/BB, .273 BAA

My Thoughts: Not nearly as good as his 2009 numbers (could have been an anomaly), but after last season I'd take it. The record is nothing to write home about and neither are the innings pitched, but the ERA is respectable. It would probably be close to league average. With only 14 starts, it looks like the Rangers would be using Feldman as a spot starter. Feldman's starter status could hinge on what the Rangers decide to do with Neftali Feliz and whether or not they are able to re-sign Cliff Lee.

Ryan Kalish: .271/.340/.452 for an OPS of .792, 20 HRs, 39 doubles, 3 triples, 82 RBIs, 94 runs scored, 158 hits, 263 total bases, 62 extra base hits, 43 SBs, 8 CS, 151 games, 641 PAs

My Thoughts: Wow, this would be an outstanding first full season. I think it's possible Kalish could get more playing time than in 2010, but I don't know about him being a starter next year; I see that happening in 2012. With numbers like these, the run production is realistic in that Red Sox lineup. I don't know if he could hit with this much power or swipe this many bags as a 23-year old, but he certainly has the tools to do it. His 43 SBs would shatter the JML record for SBs in a season (35 by Shawn Green in 1998).

Gabe Kapler: .250/.320/.385 for an OPS of .705, 4 HRs, 9 doubles, 20 RBIs, 22 runs scored, 78 games, 170 PAs

My Thoughts: Kapler is currently a free agent, so we'll see how that pans out. These aren't eye-popping numbers, but they're certainly better than what he did this year. And when you consider how pitchers are dominating right now, Kapler's line would probably be close to league average. Given his defensive prowess, I think a lot of teams could live with that from a veteran coming off the bench.

Ian Kinsler: .275/.358/.453 for an OPS of .811, 20 HRs, 33 doubles, 2 triples, 74 RBIs, 98 runs scored, 64 BBs, 150 hits, 247 total bases, 55 extra base hits, 21 SBs, 6 CS, 137 games, 609 PAs

My Thoughts: This would be a nice bounceback season for Kinsler, in terms of health and power. Believe it or not, but if he played 137 games, that would constitute the 2nd highest single-season total of his career. And with 20 HRs and 33 doubles, his ISO would revert back to what he did in 2007, which is nothing to sneeze at. This would be his third 20/20 season. His 64 BBs would be a career-high. If he's completely healthy, and that's always a big if with Kinsler, I don't think a 25/25 season is too much of a stretch. Let's not forget he'll be 28/29 in 2011, so he'll still be in his prime.

Jason Marquis: 5-7, 21 GS, 105 innings, 4.46 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 1.03 HR/9, 3.43 BB/9, 4.89 K/9, 1.43 K/BB, .273 BAA

My Thoughts: Pretty much a carbon copy of Feldman's projected season, no? Marquis hit a roadblock in 2010, but his track record suggests that he should be able to rebound from it. I think he'll make close to 30 starts and log close to 200 innings. All of the peripherals are consistent with what he's done his entire career. I have no problem with those projections. The 5-7 record isn't inspiring, but it would give him 100 wins. Marquis will be 32 for most of the 2011 season; he'll turn 33 in August. It should be noted that 2011 will be a contract year for him.

Danny Valencia: .290/.337/.434 for an OPS of .771, 10 HRs, 35 doubles, 2 triples, 62 RBIs, 61 runs scored, 139 hits, 208 total bases, 47 extra base hits, 137 games, 513 PAs

My Thoughts: These are solid numbers, but I think James is selling Valencia a little short. I believe he'll play 145+ games and could hit anywhere from 12-16 HRs. If he plays enough games and reaches his ceiling, it's possible he could even approach 20 HRs. The raw power is there, and at 26 next season he still won't have quite entered his prime years. The BA is probably where it should be, but I think his walk rate will improve. His track record in MiLB suggests that he'll draw more walks once he gets more acclimated to the Major League level. I also believe the run production will be better than what you see here by 10-15 runs.

Kevin Youkilis: .294/.398/.507 for an OPS of .905, 25 HRs, 41 doubles, 2 triples, 95 RBIs, 103 runs scored, 87 BBs, 165 hits, 285 total bases, 68 extra base hits, 151 games, 649 PAs

My Thoughts: Don't get me wrong: This would be a fantastic season, but it would also signal that Youk might be starting to slow down. His OPS the last 3 seasons has been well above .950, and he's hit over .300 in each of those seasons as well. Youk will turn 32 in 2011, so realistically he may start to slow down. However, if he has a season like this, we're not talking about a rapid decline. Youk would set career-bests in games played and runs scored. This would be his 3rd season with 25+ HRs and 40+ doubles. The 87 BBs would be his highest total since 2006. It looks like Youk might be moved back to third base out of necessity. I don't think that will adversely affect his numbers too much; on the contrary, it should only make him more valuable.

1 comment:

William Tasker - Caribou, ME said...

Solid projections and great commentary. Kudos to James and Josh.