Sunday, January 3, 2010

Jordan Starmar

Wouldn't you know it? Right after I snub Jordan Farmar, he goes out and puts on a display. Farmar tied a career-high by scoring 24 points in just 27 minutes against the Dallas Mavericks on 8-14 from the field and 2-2 from the line. Farmar led all scorers in the game.

Farmar also made 6 three-pointers on 8 attempts, establishing a new career-high in that category. Farmar last scored 24 points against the Miami Heat on February 28, 2008.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Casspi Just Getting Started

Since joining the Kings' starting lineup, Omri Casspi is averaging 16.8 points and 6.0 rebounds per game.

He's even shooting better from the free throw line. As a starter, he's shooting 79.6% from the stripe the last 10 games.

He has 3 double-doubles on the season and has scored 20 or more points 6 times, including a season-high 23 points against Jordan Farmar and the Lakers.

Shooting 46.9% from behind the arc, Casspi ranks 4th in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage.

Through 12 games, Jon Scheyer is making a strong case for getting drafted in June. He's averaging 18.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game. He's shooting 45.4% from the field, 43.6% from behind the arc, and 91% from the stripe. Scheyer's 5.50 assist to turnover ratio leads all of college basketball. He also recently set a career-high in assists with 11 against Zack Rosen and Pennsylvania.

Michael Cammalleri has 7 points in his last 6 games. Through 43 games, Cammalleri has 20 goals and 17 assists. He ranks 8th in goals and 3rd in even strength goals (16) in the NHL. His +/- rating is +12, which is a career-best. Cammalleri is also averaging more time on the ice than ever before.

Friday, January 1, 2010

Bringing in the New Year with Bill James

Bill James, the godfather of the sabermetric movement and Senior Advisor on Baseball Operations for the Boston Red Sox, gives us his 2010 projections. And I give you my impressions.

*There were no projections for Aaron Poreda and Brad Ausmus.

Ryan Braun - .315/.378/.593 for an OPS of .971, 154 games, 668 PAs, 615 ABs, 194 hits, 42 doubles, 6 triples, 39 HRs, 53 BBs, 17 SBs, 6 CS, 112 runs scored, 119 RBIs, 365 total bases

Wow, that's a big year. Braun would be setting career-highs in HRs, doubles, RBIs, and total bases. But is he capable of putting up numbers like these? Absolutely. It's hard to believe, but he is only now just entering his prime. I think it's possible he could draw more walks and steal more bases. In fact, I think if Braun wanted to and his manager let him run more often, he could steal around 30 bases.

Craig Breslow - 5-4, 0 saves, 3.39 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 72 games, 77 innings, .238 BAA, 7.9 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9

I think James is selling Breslow a little short. Breslow could easily post a lower WHIP. His WHIP the last 2 seasons was 1.13 and 1.11. I think his BAA and H/9 will also be much better than what you see here. He gave up 6.5 and 6.2 H/9 the last 2 seasons, so 7.9 seems a bit high. It'd be nice to see him with a K/9 as high as 8.1, but that's probably not going to happen.

Scott Feldman - 11-11, 4.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 32 starts, 195 innings, .261 BAA, 9.0 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 5.2 K/9

Feldman is hard to project, as he's only been a starter the last 2 seasons, and last year was his breakout year. I think he'll have more wins than 11. I could see the ERA around 4.00, but I think the WHIP will be a little lower than what you see here. I could also see Feldman with a lower BAA and H/9. The nasty cutter Feldman developed worked wonders for him last season. I see no reason why it wouldn't work wonders for him again.

Sam Fuld - .261/.346/.357 for an OPS of .703, 65 games, 129 PAs, 115 ABs, 30 hits, 6 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR, 14 BBs, 5 SBs, 2 CS, 17 runs scored, 9 RBIs, 41 total bases

From what I've seen, Fuld has a patient approach at the plate and hits well to all fields. His OBP will be higher than .346, and his SLG will be higher than .357 because his BA will be higher than .261. I also think he'll get a lot more ABs than this. Newly acquired CF Marlon Byrd will obviously get the bulk of the playing time, but given how injury-prone and streaky Soriano is and how bad Fukudome is against lefties, I would expect Fuld to get somewhere between 200 and 250 ABs.

John Grabow - 4-4, 0 saves, 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 78 games, 72 innings, .248 BAA, 8.4 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9, 7.6 K/9

This projection is certainly possible, as the numbers are all right around Grabow's career marks. But Grabow has posted career-bests in just about every pitching category the last 2 seasons. I think these numbers represent the worst case scenario for the Cubs, which actually isn't too bad. Will Grabow regress? James seems to think so. To quote Futurama, my guts says maybe.

Gabe Kapler - .262/.326/.421 for an OPS of .747, 101 games, 275 PAs, 252 ABs, 66 hits, 17 doubles, 1 triple, 7 HRs, 23 BBs, 4 SBs, 3 CS, 37 runs scored, 34 RBIs, 106 total bases

Hard to argue with these numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if Kapler wound up with a season like this. But then I also wouldn't be surprised if he did a little better. Assuming Joe Maddon platoons Kapler properly and doesn't have him face too many righties, he could easily duplicate what he did last year with the Rays.

Ian Kinsler - .275/.348/.489 for an OPS of .837, 145 games, 635 PAs, 575 ABs, 158 hits, 36 doubles, 3 triples, 27 HRs, 60 BBs, 28 SBs, 7 CS, 106 runs scored, 84 RBIs, 281 total bases

Sounds about right. If Kinsler can stay healthy and play 145 games, I could definitely see him with a line like this. If he's moved into the 5th hole in that Rangers lineup, I would expect his RBI production to go up. I also think he'll be CS fewer than 7 times. This would be a good year for Kinsler. He would set career-highs in runs scored and total bases. Might even be good enough for Silver Sluggers at second base.

Jason Marquis - 12-11, 4.37 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 32 starts, 202 innings, .268 BAA, 9.3 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 4.9 K/9

I believe James made these projections before Marquis signed with the Nats. They all seem very plausible to me, except the wins. I just can't see Marquis winning more than 10 games on that team. John Lannan, who is similar to Marquis, hasn't been able to win more than 9 games the last 2 seasons with the Nats. Hopefully, the newest members of their pen (Brian Bruney, Eddie Guardado, and Matt Capps) will be able to hold onto leads for Marquis. I also think Marquis will give up fewer than 1.0 HR/9 pitching at Nationals Park.

Scott Schoeneweis - 2-2, 0 saves, 4.65 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 53 games, 31 innings, .268 BAA, 9.3 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9

Who knows if Schoeneweis will even play in 2010? But if he does land a job somewhere, this could be as good as it gets from him. He's on the wrong side of 30, and he just came off a devastating year - in more ways than one. Obviously, last season he was emotionally compromised. Can he bounce back?

Josh Whitesell - .267/.364/.438 SLG for an OPS of .802, 46 games, 120 PAs, 105 ABs, 28 hits, 6 doubles, 0 triples, 4 HRs, 15 BBs, 0 SBs, 0 CS, 13 runs scored, 17 RBIs, 46 total bases

After hitting just below the Mendoza Line last season, I'm sure Whitesell would readily take a .267 BA. I know I would. But if Whitesell does hit around .267, his OBP will surely be higher than .364. Whitesell has excellent plate discipline. I'd like to think Whitesell will get more than 105 ABs, but it's possible he may not even get that many.

Kevin Youkilis - .289/.394/.492 for an OPS of .886, 149 games, 642 PAs, 557 ABs, 161 hits, 42 doubles, 1 triple, 23 HRs, 85 BBs, 6 SBs, 3 CS, 98 runs scored, 95 RBIs, 274 total bases

Coming off 2 stellar seasons with an OPS above .950, this is a rather conservative projection for Youk. If he hits around 10 points below .300 as James seems to think he will, I have no objections. But if he hits .300 or above as I believe he will, his SLG will be higher and his OPS will be higher. This year, I think we could be looking at an OPS around .920. I myself predicted Youk would hit under 25 HRs and over 40 doubles, so of course I have to agree with James there.

Monday, December 28, 2009

Diamondbacks Not Sold On Whitesell

On December 13, Josh Whitesell was non-tendered by the Arizona Diamondbacks. What does this mean? It means Whitesell's contract was not renewed and he is now a free agent. It also means that I'll be rooting for him to catch on somewhere else and stick it to the Diamondbacks' organization.

Whitesell will turn 28 in April, so he's still in his prime. The problem lies in is his versatility; he can only play 1st base and DH. And at 1st base, he is just average defensively. I'm thinking the Oakland A's could be a good fit. Jack Cust will likely sign with a new team. Whitesell's main competition would be Daric Barton and Jake Fox, both of whom are unproven players. And we all know that Billy Beane likes guys who can get on base. Whitesell is one of those guys.

Whitesell reminds me a little of Micah Franklin, a JML from the last decade who put up great numbers in the Minors and was only given a taste of MLB in 1997 with the Cardinals. Hopefully, Whitesell's fate will not be the same as Franklin's.

EDIT: Whitesell has signed a Minor League deal with the Washington Nationals, the team that drafted him in 2003 (then the Montreal Expos).

Staying in the NL hurts Whitesell's chances of getting significant playing time, as there is no DH. Still, he would be a defensive upgrade over Adam Dunn at 1st base. As I said before, Dunn is a liability wherever you put him.

If the Nationals moved him back to the outfield and used Whitesell at 1st base, defensively their corner outfielders would take a hit with Dunn and Josh Willingham while their corner infielders would improve with Ryan Zimmerman and Whitesell. And I still believe Whitesell can be a major contributor at the plate if given a fair shake.

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Sadowski To Play For A Different Giants Team

Earlier this month, unbeknownst to me Ryan Sadowski signed with the Houston Astros. The Astros have since let Sadowski out of his contract, presumably so that Sadowski could sign with the Lotte Giants, a Korean pro baseball club. Sadowski signed a 1-year deal worth $200,000 with an additional $100,000 signing bonus.

Sadowski, 27, had played 6 seasons in the Minors and was called up for the first time in 2009. In 6 starts, he was 2-4 with a 4.45 ERA. Most notably, his first 16 2/3 innings were scoreless.

Saturday, December 26, 2009

HBP

To Harry Potter fans, HBP stands for Half-Blood Prince. To baseball fans, HBP stands for hit by pitch. I happen to be a fan of Harry Potter and baseball, but only one of them is applicable to this post.

1. Kevin Youkilis - 16 HBP (Boston Red Sox, 2009)
2. Kevin Youkilis - 15 HBP (Boston Red Sox, 2007)
3. Brad Ausmus - 14 HBP (Detroit Tigers, 1999)
3. Mike Lieberthal - 14 HBP (Philadelphia Phillies, 2002)
4. Mike Epstein - 13 HBP (Washington Senators, 1968)
4. Ryan Braun - 13 HBP (Milwaukee Brewers, 2009)
5. Mike Epstein - 12 HBP (Washington Senators/Oakland Athletics, 1971)
5. Mike Lieberthal - 12 HBP (Philadelphia Phillies, 2003)
5. Kevin Youkilis - 12 HBP (Boston Red Sox, 2008)

Monday, December 21, 2009

Marquis Signs With Nationals

Pending a physical, Jason Marquis has agreed to a 2-year deal with the Washington Nationals worth $15 million.

So, let's break this down. Were the Mets the better option? Statistically speaking, no question about it. Citi Field is a pitcher's dream. Look what it did to David Wright's power. However, don't sell Nationals Park short.

According to MLB Park Factors, it's right in the middle of the pack. And there were actually less home runs hit this year at Nationals Park than at Citi Field, if you can believe it. The Mets and Nats were both terrible defensive teams in 2009, but part of that has to be due to the perfect storm of injuries the Mets had to endure this season.

Defensively, the Nats will be better than they were last year, which is important for someone like Marquis who pitches to contact. Marquis' groundball rate in 2009 was 56%, a career-high. On the Rockies, Marquis had a strong middle infield behind him in Troy Tulowitski and Clint Barmes. He also had solid corner infielders in Todd Helton and Ian Stewart/Garrett Atkins. Brad Hawpe and Dexter Fowler weren't terrific in the outfield, but Seth Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ryan Spilborghs were all very good.

One significant upgrade Marquis will have defensively is at catcher. I wouldn't call Yorvit Torrealba and Chris Iannetta slouches, but between them they only threw out 20% of baserunners who ran on them in 2009; that's well under league average.

On the Nats, Marquis will be working with one of the greatest defensive catchers of all time: Ivan Rodriguez. Pudge may be past his prime and off the juice, but in 2009 he threw out 35% of baserunners who ran on him in 115 games. For his career, he's thrown out 46% of baserunners. Marquis will also be pitching to up-and-comer Jesus Flores, whose scouting report describes him as a good receiver who has a "great arm that can singlehandedly curb the running game."

In addition, Marquis will benefit from Ryan Zimmerman's play at the hot corner. Zimmerman won a Gold Glove for his efforts at third base this year, but don't be fooled by Gold Gloves generally only being awarded to offensive players. Zimmerman is an outstanding third baseman.

In the outfield, Marquis will have Nyjer Morgan patrolling center field. Morgan can go get 'em with the best of them. Morgan is definitely an upgrade over what Marquis had last season. I assume Justin Maxwell will also log some innings in the outfield in 2010. If so, he projects to be a good outfielder.

Now comes the bad. I love Adam Dunn, but he is an awful defensive baseball player. Doesn't matter where you put him. He is a liability at first base and in the outfield. With Nick Johnson out of the picture, Dunn will primarily play first base. Josh Willingham and Elijah Dukes also don't bring much to the table defensively, although Dukes could still develop.

Marquis' middle infield will, in all likelihood, be a downgrade from what he had with the Rockies. Rookie Ian Desmond projects to start at shortstop while veteran Cristian Guzman will be moved to second base. The Nationals are said to be interested in second baseman Orlando Hudson. Hudson is a bona fide Gold Glover and is a groundball pitcher's best friend.

To summarize: Pudge, Flores, Zimmerman, and Morgan are all defensive upgrades over what Marquis had last year. One corner outfield position could be stabilized with Maxwell while the other will almost certainly suffer. First base with Dunn is always an adventure, and the middle infield is still a question mark. Marquis will also have a lot less run support than he had with the Rockies.

One cool thing about this move is Marquis will be the elder statesman on the Nats' rotation. This means he could very well become Stephen Strasburg's mentor. Strasburg's off-the-charts ability is well-documented. I believe Jordan Zimmerman will also emerge as a quality starter. John Lannan is a proven young southpaw whose career ERA+ is 108. Add Marquis into the mix, and you've got a decent rotation 1-4, assuming Strasburg sees time in The Show next season.

I'm not going to lie. New York would have been neat. Obviously, it's a much bigger market, and Marquis grew up there. With the Nats, Marquis' remarkable postseason streak of 10 years is now in serious jeopardy, as is his 6-year run of 11 or more wins per season.

Coming into 2009, many thought Marquis would struggle pitching at Coors Field. That proved not to be the case, as his 3.92 ERA there demonstrates. I wouldn't count on the Nats vying for a playoff spot, but consider the turnaround the Seattle Mariners had last year. In 2008, they won 61 games. Last year, they won 85 games. Maybe, just maybe, the Nationals can also turn it around. And maybe Marquis can help them do it.